By Stanley K. Smith
This publication specializes in the technique and research of country and native inhabitants projections. It describes the main known information assets and alertness innovations for 4 different types of projection tools: cohort-component, pattern extrapolation, structural types, and microsimulation. It covers the parts of inhabitants development, resources of knowledge, the formation of assumptions, the advance of overview standards, and the determinants of forecast accuracy. It considers the strengths and weaknesses of varied projection tools and can pay specific consciousness to the original difficulties that signify small-area projections. The authors supply functional suggestions to demographers, planners, industry analysts, and others referred to as directly to build nation and native inhabitants projections. They use many examples and illustrations and current feedback for facing distinct populations, designated situations, and insufficient or unreliable info. They describe options for controlling one set of projections to a different, for interpolating among time issues, for sub-dividing age teams, and for developing projections of population-related variables (e.g., university enrollment, households). They talk about the function of judgment and the significance of the political context during which projections are made. They emphasize the “utility” of projections, or their usefulness for determination making in a global of competing calls for and constrained assets. This accomplished ebook will supply readers with an figuring out not just of the mechanics of the main regular inhabitants projection tools, but additionally of the numerous advanced concerns affecting their development, interpretation, evaluate, and use.
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Extra resources for A Practitioner's Guide to State and Local Population Projections
Journal of the American Planning Association, 50, 208–221. , & Fisher, P. (1984). Population forecasting and local economic planning: The limits on community control over uncertainty. Population Research and Policy Review, 3, 27–50. Keilman, N. (1990). Uncertainty in national population forecasting. Amsterdam: Swets and Zeitlinger. Keyfitz, N. (1972). On future population. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 67, 347–362. 18 1 Rationale, Terminology, Scope Keyfitz, N. (1981). The limits of population forecasting.
1. Numeric change is computed by subtracting the population at the earlier date from the population at the later date. A negative sign indicates a population loss. Percent change is computed by dividing the numeric change by the population at the earlier date and multiplying by 100. 1%). Michigan was the only state to lose population during the decade. Population change can also be expressed in terms of an average annual numeric change (AANC), which can be computed by dividing total change by the number of years between the two dates: AANC ¼ ðPl À Pb Þ=y 26 2 Fundamentals of Population Analysis where Pl is the population at the later date, Pb is the population at the earlier date, and y is the number of years between the two.
On future population. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 67, 347–362. 18 1 Rationale, Terminology, Scope Keyfitz, N. (1981). The limits of population forecasting. Population and Development Review, 7, 579–593. Klosterman, R. E. (2007). Deliberating about the future. In L. D. Hopkins & M. A. ), Engaging the future (pp. 199–219). Cambridge, MA: Lincoln Institute of Land Policy. , & Tuljapurkar, S. (1994). Stochastic population forecasts for the United States: Beyond high, medium, and low.